A rollercoaster ride through the signage market
True to form, the invidis Market Keynote sped through many aspects of the global digital signage market, as well as introducing the Summit’s main topic, Managed Signage.
Florian Rotberg and Stefan Schieker presented market numbers from Futuresource, which indicated that global units and global value had both risen by 7% last year. One reason that this may not chime with some people’s perceptions is because LCD is continuing to lose market share to LED; the latter technology is set to dominate the market, in terms of value, within two or three years.
The latest invidis Digital Signage Business Confidence Index, for Q1, stands at 50.4, indicating a positive and stable market. However, that figure was calculated before President Trump imposed his “liberation day” import tariffs. Although the Chinese tariff percentage has fallen from 145% to 30%, it is still the highest for 90 years, and, in Rotberg’s words: “Thirty per cent? No-one can live with that.” He quoted a Bloomberg prediction that trade between the US and China would fall by 70%.
Meanwhile, container ships of Chinese products that were to have sailed to the USA have been sent instead to Europe – and are expected to start arriving in the next two weeks.
With the situation remaining volatile, Rotberg and Schieker presented three broad scenarios – positive, realistic and negative – covering possible developments. In US-China relations, for example, the positive scenario was a trade agreement, the realistic outcome was that tensions would remain, while the negative scenario was a trade war.
An outcome that appeared in both negative and realistic scenarios was ‘bipolar AI’ – where, under pressure from the USA, the AI market splits into two distinct camps, American and Chinese. This would mean that software companies will have to produce two completely different products to serve the two markets.
While today AI use is in its infancy in digital signage – Schieker presented invidis research indicating 50% of respondents do not use the technology at all – examples from outside the industry indicate that embracing AI can bring about improvements that are 10 times or even 100 times better or faster.
In the face of all this uncertainty, Schieker advised that “the worst thing you can do is take no decisions… Just make up your mind, what’s the best choice I have in different scenarios, and take these decisions.”
The keynote also introduced the Summit’s lead topic, Managed Signage. Taking as a starting point the observation that the main reason for signage network failures is simply that they are not being managed, the two hosts presented a framework for what different levels of managed services for digital signage can look like. These ranged from ownership of operations after installation, to ownership of the full hardware lifecycle, to full responsibility for the complete network solution.
However, there is much that requires thinking through, including financing, business models and more. Contrary to the visual message on the cover of the then hours-from-release invidis Yearbook, managed signage cannot simply be switched on!
